BINOMIAL PATHS / 8 TO 16 ROWS
Stake Plinko: probability and payout distribution
The concentration near the centre and rapid rarity toward the edges follow a mathematical pattern. A binomial model shows how row count and risk setting alter variance rather than create a favourable expected value.
当サイトの第二の入口
広告 · アフィリエイトリンク · 20歳以上
出金で待たされるのが嫌なら、入口を二つ持っておく
出金が止まる理由は運営の親切さではなく、お金がどの経路を通るか、審査が自動か人の目か、書類をいつ求めるかの三つで決まります。1winは仮想通貨と電子決済を主軸に置いていて、本人確認を先に通しておけば申請から着金までが短く収まります。カジノとスポーツが同じ残高で動くので、口座を増やさずに遊ぶ先を変えられます。
- 仮想通貨の出金は申請から数分〜数十分
- 入金ボーナスは初回から段階式
- カジノとスポーツが同じ残高
- Aviator・Plinko系のクラッシュゲーム
- ライブテーブルは24時間開いている
- 日本語の画面とサポート
ボーナス条件・アフィリエイトの開示・20歳以上の注意
広告表記。この枠は独立した情報サイトの中に置かれた商業スペースです。ステークガイドは1winの運営元ではなく、Stakeの運営元でもありません。上のリンクはアフィリエイトリンクで、ここから登録や入金が発生すると当サイトに紹介料が支払われます。読者の支払額は変わりませんし、サイト本文の検証内容や評価はこの枠の有無で変わりません。表示しているボーナスは運営側が決めるものです。倍率、最低入金額、賭け条件（出金条件）の倍数と掛け先、消化率、有効期限、対象外ゲーム、最大ベット額、最大出金額、本人確認（KYC）の要否は、入金する前に運営側の利用規約ページで必ず自分で確認してください。販促の数字は予告なく変わるため、検索結果やまとめ記事で見た条件が既に終了していることがあります。20歳未満の方は利用できません。他人の名義や書類で登録する行為は禁止されています。賭けは期待値がマイナスの娯楽であり、収入の手段でも、負けを取り戻す方法でもありません。始める前に上限額を決め、負けを追いかけず、生活費や借入金を使わないでください。遊ぶ時間や金額を自分で止められないと感じたら、プラットフォーム側の入金上限と自己排除の機能を使い、お住まいの自治体の精神保健福祉センター、または依存症の相談窓口に相談してください。日本国内では私設の賭博は刑法で禁じられており、海外のライセンスは国内での適法性を保証しません。利用の判断は各自の責任で行ってください。
- Rows
- 8 to 16
- one-row increments
- Risk
- 4 levels
- Easy to Expert
- Published RTP
- 99.00%
- checked 2026-09-01
- Published ceiling
- 10,000×
- 16-row Expert display
01
Rows count branches; risk reallocates payouts
With n rows there are 2ⁿ possible ideal left/right paths and n+1 destination bins. Most paths terminate near the centre; each extreme edge has only one path.
Easy, Medium, Hard and Expert do not make a left/right branch more favourable. They redistribute multipliers between common central bins and rare edge bins, changing variance.
- Eight rows produce 256 ideal paths; sixteen produce 65,536
- The sixteen-row centre has 12,870 paths, about 19.638%
- One sixteen-row edge has one path, about 0.001526%
02
A 10,000× ceiling does not describe its frequency
The maximum displayed 10,000× multiplier is attached to an extreme bin in the sixteen-row Expert table. Under the ideal model, one extreme occurs with probability 1/65,536, about 0.001526%; both extremes total about 0.003052%.
A complete payout table is calibrated by summing probability multiplied by payout over every bin. Quoting only the maximum removes frequency and understates risk.
03
Separate animation from outcome generation
The screen depicts a ball striking pins, but verification concerns how seeds generate the left/right sequence. A provably-fair history should let a reviewer reproduce the path and destination from server seed, client seed and nonce.
Faster animation or simultaneous balls does not improve the per-round distribution. It can increase rounds per hour and therefore increase expected loss per hour.
04
Can drop position or avoiding the centre beat the model?
The online version does not give the user physical control over launch point or peg friction. A strategy based on imperfections in a physical board does not transfer to a seed-generated result without evidence.
Rows and risk level change distribution shape. If the published RTP stays the same, neither creates positive expected value; the choice is about tolerated variance.
MODEL
Ideal probability of k left moves after n rows
If each pin branches left or right with equal probability, destination bins follow a binomial distribution. The published result algorithm determines actual outcomes; the payout table maps bin probability to multipliers after the operator edge.
P(K = k) = C(n, k) ÷ 2ⁿ DATA
Reference table
| Rows | Centre bin | One edge | Both edges |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 27.3438% | 0.390625% | 0.781250% |
| 12 | 22.5586% | 0.024414% | 0.048828% |
| 16 | 19.6381% | 0.001526% | 0.003052% |
CALCULATOR
Change row count and destination bin
Treating the left edge as zero and right edge as n, the tool calculates path count and probability under an ideal 50/50 branch model. It does not predict a payout multiplier.
The calculator is an educational model, not a prediction or a recommendation to gamble.
FAQ
Plinko probability FAQ
What is the sixteen-row centre probability?
C(16,8)/65,536, approximately 19.6381%, under the ideal model.
What is the probability of an extreme edge?
One side is 1/65,536, about 0.001526%; both sides total about 0.003052%.
Does Expert increase RTP?
The published setting changes variance and multiplier distribution, not the stated 99% RTP.
Can the user select a physical drop point?
The published online version generates outcomes from seeds; it is not a user-adjusted physical board.