WIN CHANCE × PAYOUT = 0.99
Stake Dice: probability and fairness verification
Increasing win chance reduces the multiplier; increasing the multiplier reduces win chance. Their product stays near a constant expected return. This separates an emotional suspicion after a losing run from evidence that can actually be checked.
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- Draw
- 100-sided
- virtual continuous result
- Win setting
- 2 to 98%
- Over / Under
- Published RTP
- 99.00%
- checked 2026-09-01
- Published ceiling
- 49.50×
- at 2% win chance
01
Roll Over and Roll Under only reverse direction
The user chooses whether a draw must be above or below a threshold. Under a uniform distribution, Over and Under at the same configured win chance have equal theoretical probability and expected value.
The win-chance control exchanges frequency for payout. A 98% setting wins small amounts frequently; a 2% setting loses most rounds and wins a larger amount rarely. Both retain the published edge.
- 50% × 1.98 = 99%
- 10% × 9.90 = 99%
- 2% × 49.50 = 99%
02
How ordinary can a losing streak be?
For independent trials with win probability p, the chance of losing all n trials is (1-p)ⁿ. Even at a 50% win chance, ten consecutive losses occur with probability about 0.0977%, roughly one sequence in 1,024.
A 98% win setting still has a 2% loss probability on every round. ‘Almost always’ is not ‘always’; the small payout is calibrated so an occasional loss can remove many earlier gains.
03
Test a rigging claim by reproduction, not impression
A provably-fair check uses the committed server-seed hash, client seed and nonce to reproduce the result with the published algorithm. Matching both the result and the earlier commitment is evidence against an after-the-fact result swap.
Whether the published description is complete and the production implementation matches it is a separate audit question. A short losing run alone is not statistical evidence of manipulation.
04
Can Martingale or changing chance improve expectation?
Doubling after a loss does not change the next draw. Required capital grows exponentially during a streak, and one encounter with a balance or bet limit can erase many small gains.
Changing win chance during a session also cannot improve expected value when each setting has the same theoretical return. It reshapes variance, not the sign of the edge.
MODEL
Theoretical multiplier with a 1% edge
A 50% chance maps to 1.98×, 10% to 9.90× and 2% to 49.50×. Multiplying each payout by its decimal win probability returns 0.99.
Payout multiplier = 99 ÷ win chance (%) DATA
Reference table
| Win chance | Theoretical payout | Expected return | Loss chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1.980× | 99.00% | 50% |
| 25% | 3.960× | 99.00% | 75% |
| 10% | 9.900× | 99.00% | 90% |
| 2% | 49.500× | 99.00% | 98% |
CALCULATOR
Change win chance and inspect payout
For a win chance from 2% to 98%, this tool applies a 1% house edge. Product rounding may create small differences from a live display.
The calculator is an educational model, not a prediction or a recommendation to gamble.
FAQ
Dice fairness and probability FAQ
Do ten losses prove rigging?
No. At a 50% win chance, ten consecutive losses occur naturally about 0.0977% of the time. Seed reproduction is a concrete test.
Is Over better than Under?
Not at the same configured probability under a uniform model.
Is a 98% win chance safe?
No. Every round retains a 2% loss chance, and the low payout lets one loss erase many small wins.
Does Martingale work?
It does not change probability or expected value and sharply increases required capital and ruin risk.