CASH-OUT THRESHOLD / TAIL RISK
Stake Crash: mechanics and probability
A rising multiplier creates urgency, but mathematically the round asks whether a preset threshold is reached. This review separates manual versus automatic cash-out, target probability and network timing risk.
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広告 · アフィリエイトリンク · 20歳以上
出金で待たされるのが嫌なら、入口を二つ持っておく
出金が止まる理由は運営の親切さではなく、お金がどの経路を通るか、審査が自動か人の目か、書類をいつ求めるかの三つで決まります。1winは仮想通貨と電子決済を主軸に置いていて、本人確認を先に通しておけば申請から着金までが短く収まります。カジノとスポーツが同じ残高で動くので、口座を増やさずに遊ぶ先を変えられます。
- 仮想通貨の出金は申請から数分〜数十分
- 入金ボーナスは初回から段階式
- カジノとスポーツが同じ残高
- Aviator・Plinko系のクラッシュゲーム
- ライブテーブルは24時間開いている
- 日本語の画面とサポート
ボーナス条件・アフィリエイトの開示・20歳以上の注意
広告表記。この枠は独立した情報サイトの中に置かれた商業スペースです。ステークガイドは1winの運営元ではなく、Stakeの運営元でもありません。上のリンクはアフィリエイトリンクで、ここから登録や入金が発生すると当サイトに紹介料が支払われます。読者の支払額は変わりませんし、サイト本文の検証内容や評価はこの枠の有無で変わりません。表示しているボーナスは運営側が決めるものです。倍率、最低入金額、賭け条件（出金条件）の倍数と掛け先、消化率、有効期限、対象外ゲーム、最大ベット額、最大出金額、本人確認（KYC）の要否は、入金する前に運営側の利用規約ページで必ず自分で確認してください。販促の数字は予告なく変わるため、検索結果やまとめ記事で見た条件が既に終了していることがあります。20歳未満の方は利用できません。他人の名義や書類で登録する行為は禁止されています。賭けは期待値がマイナスの娯楽であり、収入の手段でも、負けを取り戻す方法でもありません。始める前に上限額を決め、負けを追いかけず、生活費や借入金を使わないでください。遊ぶ時間や金額を自分で止められないと感じたら、プラットフォーム側の入金上限と自己排除の機能を使い、お住まいの自治体の精神保健福祉センター、または依存症の相談窓口に相談してください。日本国内では私設の賭博は刑法で禁じられており、海外のライセンスは国内での適法性を保証しません。利用の判断は各自の責任で行ってください。
- Format
- Real time
- multi-user display
- Cash-out
- Manual / Auto
- before crash only
- Published RTP
- 99.00%
- checked 2026-09-01
- Published ceiling
- 1,000,000×
- not a frequency claim
01
The result exists behind the rising animation
A round rises from 1.00× and ends at its crash point. A cash-out accepted before that point applies the current multiplier. In the published fairness model, the crash point comes from seeds rather than a fresh draw when a button is pressed.
Auto Cash Out attempts the request at a chosen multiplier and can reduce input delay. It does not change the chance that the target is reached. Network interruption and acceptance timing are implementation risks outside the probability model.
- 2× reach: about 49.5%
- 5× reach: about 19.8%
- 10× reach: about 9.9%
02
Early and late targets keep the same theoretical return
A 1.10× target is reached frequently but pays little. A 10× target fails before the threshold in about 90.1% of rounds under the approximation. Frequency and payout move inversely, so target selection alone cannot improve expectation.
Other participants’ visible cash-outs do not alter an already generated round result. Crowd behaviour affects emotion, not the cryptographic inputs.
03
Provably-fair checks happen after a round
A reviewer compares the committed server-seed hash with the later revealed seed, includes client seed and nonce, and reproduces the crash point. A match can test the claim that the point was changed after display.
Cash-out request receipt, network delay and UI timing require separate logs. Outcome reproduction alone cannot prove the absence of communication problems.
04
Can earlier low results or player count predict the next one?
An independent model has no compensation rule forcing a high result after a sequence of low results. Patterns in a coloured history can be accidental structure in a small sample.
Player count and visible cash-out flow also do not reveal the next seed. The measurable inputs are target probability, failure probability, number of trials and loss limit.
MODEL
Approximate probability of reaching x
In a simple 1% edge model, 2× is reached about 49.5%, 5× about 19.8% and 10× about 9.9%. Cashing out at x leaves probability multiplied by payout near 0.99.
P(crash point ≥ x) ≈ 0.99 ÷ x DATA
Reference table
| Target | Reach probability | Ends before target | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | 66.000% | 34.000% | 99.00% |
| 2× | 49.500% | 50.500% | 99.00% |
| 5× | 19.800% | 80.200% | 99.00% |
| 10× | 9.900% | 90.100% | 99.00% |
| 100× | 0.990% | 99.010% | 99.00% |
CALCULATOR
Calculate reach probability from cash-out target
This simple model includes a 1% house edge but not network delay, acceptance boundaries or implementation rounding.
The calculator is an educational model, not a prediction or a recommendation to gamble.
FAQ
Crash probability and cash-out FAQ
Does Auto Cash Out improve the odds?
It can reduce input delay but does not change reach probability or theoretical expected value.
What is the chance of reaching 2×?
Approximately 49.5% under the simple 1% edge model.
Is a high result due after several low rounds?
Not for independent rounds. History does not compensate the next result.
Do other players’ cash-outs predict the point?
No. They do not reveal the cryptographic inputs of an already generated crash point.